Politics Update #25: Here Come the Midterms!

With ¾ of state primaries conducted, we resume coverage of the 2022 American midterms: the Republicans remain highly likely to control the House of Representatives from 2023, and (based on our analysis of primary turnout and national trends) have a strong chance at winning the Senate too. We argue that the momentum behind this comes from the GOP base’s devotion to former President Trump, whose preferred candidates have been nominated in nearly all key races. Is the revenge of ‘MAGA’ this year’s Tea Party?